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Ecological Safety and Balanced Use of Resources

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Article

Possibility of forecasting disaster floods

Yaroslav Adamenko
Abstract

On January 1, 2021, the Rector by his order created a separate structural unit within IFNTUOG – Center of forecasting and prevention of technogenic and hydroecological danger in Prykarpattia. In recent years, two catastrophic floods occurred in the Carpathian region and in Podillia: one – on July 23-28, 2008, and the other one – on June 20-24, 2020. Both caused enormous damage to the environment and the population, as it was widely reported in the media. To be prepared for natural disasters, it is necessary to learn how to predict them, i.e. know the territory in which they appear, water rise height and when it may happen. From this triad, the first two components can already be predicted, but the third one cannot be predicted yet. The article deals with the possibility of temporal prediction that was confirmed during the flood on June 20-24, 2020. O. M. Adamenko and D. O. Zorin developed the graphs of global climate change over the period of the Earth’s history from its birth 4.567 billion years ago to the present. It turned out that the warm and cold periods alternated periodically, starting from the Galactic Year (225-250 million years), of which there were 19, to the current 11 summer cycles of Solar activity. A total of 13 orders of cycles were identified, which interfere in the form of sinusoids, determining the periodicity of geological events. Geotectonic epochs of the 2nd order (50-70 million years) overlap with the cyclicity of the 1st order – galactic years – these are Karelian, Baikal, Caledonian, Hercynian, Pacific and Alpine tectonic-magmatic epochs, which are divided into subepochs of the 3rd (30-40 million years) and 4th (10- 15 million) orders. The following cycles – 5 (3-5 million years), 6 (150-140 thousand years) and 7 (10-20 thousand years) are associated with a large Cenozoic cooling, which ended with the Quaternary glaciation. Cycles 8 (1-4 thousand years) and 9 (500-600 years) reflect changes in warming and cooling in the quarter. And then the analysis of events was reconstructed on the basis of archaeological and chronicle data: from the beginning of our era to the twelfth century the warming of the ninth cycle continued – a small climatic optimum and a small ice age (13th –17th centuries). Modern warming began in the 19th century with clear 33-year fluctuations of the 10th cycle. Beginning in 1881, instrumental observations appeared at meteorological stations and hydro posts. Cycles 11 (20-15-11 years), 12 (5-6 years) and 13 (3-4 years) appeared. Against the background of 33 annual fluctuations in the global climate, 11 annual cycles and catastrophic floods of 1911, 1927, 1941, 1955, 1969, 1980, 1988, 2002, 2008 appeared, and the catastrophic flood of 2020 was predicted by O. M. Adamenko and D.O. Zorin. Thus, it is possible to learn to predict the time of the next catastrophic flood

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Received 04.06.2021

Revised 04.06.2021

Accepted 04.06.2021

https://doi.org/10.31471/2415-3184-2021-1(23)-7-21
Retrieved from Vol. 12, No. 1, 2021
Pages 7-21

Suggested citation

Adamenko, Ya. (2021). Possibility of forecasting disaster floods. Ecological Safety and Balanced Use of Resources, 12(1), 7-21. https://doi.org/10.31471/2415-3184-2021-1(23)-7-21

References

References in the process of publication

Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas 76019, 15 Karpatska Str., Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine

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